Failure to Launch
Voting to raise taxes for the spaceport on April 3 is the only part of New Mexico's space race that's on schedule.
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Analogies Attack |
By David A. Fryxell
Everybody in Southwest New Mexico knows the ignominious saga of the inaugural launch at the recently rechristened Spaceport America on Sept. 25, 2006. UP Aerospace, "the world's premier supplier of low-cost space access," craned its 56-foot-tall SpaceLoftXL rocket up onto the makeshift launchpad near Upham, NM.
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A modest sign greets visitors to the site of Spaceport America. |
The rocket was small enough to bypass the need for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) licensing—a bureaucratic hoop the spaceport still has yet to jump through, six months later. And the temporary trailers, dirt road and bare concrete pad that remain the reality of this middle-of-nowhere site—several leaps of imagination away from designer Phillipe Starck's futuristic vision of a giant eyeball poking out of the desert—met UP Aerospace's modest needs just fine. The payload consisted of high-school science experiments and cremated remains aiming for a grand exit. But the launch was momentous nonetheless, meant to rocket New Mexico into the lead in the 21st century's free-enterprise space race.
The SpaceLoftXL, poised like a dark-blue pencil against the brilliant New Mexico sky, belched an impressive cloud of smoke and darted spaceward, to the whoops and cheers of those crowded into the makeshift control center.
Moments after liftoff, however, at 40,000 feet—290,000 feet shy of the internationally recognized edge of "outer space"—the SpaceLoftXL corkscrewed out of control. The rocket dropped earthward like a wounded bird and smashed into the desert. Its handlers would spend days searching for the lost spacecraft, high-school science experiments and the ashes of somebody's starry-eyed loved ones.
Soon after the crash, Jerry Larson, president of UP Aerospace, proclaimed with the fervent if misplaced optimism that's typical of spaceport boosters, "I think people will be surprised at how fast we return to flight operations. We have a very full launch calendar for this year, and through 2007, 2008 and beyond." He vowed that the company's next launch would take place before the end of 2006.
That was last October. UP Aerospace has yet to make another attempt to launch from Spaceport America.
Spaceport boosters apparently hope that Dona Ana County voters share their optimistic outlook on April 3, when a quarter-percent gross receipts tax increase is on the ballot. Three-quarters of that annual $6.5 million tax boost would go to the spaceport, with the rest dedicated to science and math education. Spaceport optimists believe voters will overlook that inconvenient inaugural crash, a litany of blown deadlines and a swarm of competing spaceports (see box). Given the high-powered backing of the spaceport tax—from Gov. Richardson to the Sun-News to a chamber of commerce who's who—they're probably right.
But the fact remains: That April 3 voting date will be the first thing about New Mexico's spaceport to happen on schedule.
Unlike projects in favored northern New Mexico such as the Rail Runner commuter train, whose $125 million phase-one cost was entirely funded by the state (Sandoval County also kicked in $10 million for add-ons there), Spaceport America is expected to be partly funded by locals. The state legislature has committed $115 million toward the estimated $200-$225 million spaceport price tag—conveniently recalculated right before the tax vote at $198 million—with another $25 million possible and $25 million hoped for in federal funds. That leaves nearly $60 million for Dona Ana, Sierra and Otero county taxpayers to pick up by raising their gross-receipts taxes.
The spaceport will actually be located on 27 sections of land in Sierra County, where T or C stands to reap the bulk of any immediate economic boost, especially from construction spending (half to two-thirds of the economic impact in the first five years, according to an NMSU report). But Las Cruces, 45 miles away, will be "the southern gateway to the spaceport," according to a four-color brochure from People for Aerospace, a group backing the spaceport tax. And Dona Ana County taxpayers will pick up almost 85 percent of the local tab for spaceport construction: $49 million, compared to $6.6 million from Otero County and a mere $2.3 million from Sierra County coffers.
According to Rick Homans, New Mexico secretary for economic development, Sierra and Otero counties have not yet scheduled their own votes. "I believe they will take action after they see what happens in Dona Ana," Homans says. "They have not voted on official resolutions yet and they would need to do this to put the issue to the voters."
Why is southern New Mexico expected to help pay for the spaceport? "Since economic impact will be primarily in the southern part of the state, a reasonable local match is justified," explains a People for Aerospace brochure. "This is economic development that benefits an immediate area, and requires local financial investment from residents that stand to benefit from the project." An even stronger such argument could be made for requiring "local financial investment" in the Rail Runner, which exclusively benefits northern New Mexico. But no one is talking about asking the residents who will benefit to pony up for phase-two costs to extend the line from Bernalillo to Santa Fe, estimated at $240-$255 million.
"With the RailRunner, northern New Mexico residents will contribute via fares that are being paid, and will be paid, every day," says Homans. "Also, local governments and taxpayers are likely to pay for local mass transit to feed into the system. The spaceport won't be generating fares from local residents of southern New Mexico. The tax is one way in which the local residents can participate directly with the state, federal government and private sector to launch this new industry. Most of the positive economic impact will occur in southern New Mexico."
Of the up to a dozen proposed spaceport projects from coast to coast, only New Mexico expects local residents to pitch in via gross-receipts or sales taxes. The spaceport tax would take Las Cruces' rate to 7.375 percent, Mesilla to 7.625 and Hatch and Sunland Park to 7.25. If Sierra County votes a similar boost, T or C's tax rate would hit 7.5 percent, and a suggested one-eighth percent increase in Otero County would take Alamogordo to 7.375 percent, Cloudcroft and Tularosa to 7.125 percent.
Invasion of the Spaceports The business plan for New Mexico's spaceport, developed in 2005 by the Arrowhead Center for Entrepreneurship and Business Development at NMSU, projects a range of possible economic benefits based on Spaceport America hosting between 25 and 75 percent of estimated US suborbital launches. The projections look ahead only five years, starting in 2006—a start date that will likely have to slide at least two years. What could go wrong with the spaceport plan? The report answers, "Paramount among the threats is the substantial competition from rivals (some with significant financial backing and managerial excellence) within the United States and abroad, posing an obstacle to effective penetration of the market and the attraction of needed capital." That's exactly what's happened since the NMSU report was compiled, raising the question of whether New Mexico can attain even the low-end 25 percent share of the launch market. Lists of other proposed spaceports in the US alone range from six to 11 possible competitors, from Alaska to Sheboygan, Wisc. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin has bought a huge slice of land in West Texas—without government help—and just launched its first test vehicle. Elon Musk has set aside half his $200 million PayPal fortune to build spaceships in his SpaceX factory near Los Angeles, and already has a $278 million NASA contract. Videogame millionaire John Carmack is test-firing rockets at his own facility near Dallas. Ex-Burt Rutan partner Jim Benson hopes to raise $50 million to build a ship to rival Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo. Ohio officials are trying to lure still another spaceship firm, PlanetSpace, to a launch site near Columbus. New Mexico's spaceport even faces competition from its own key tenant, Virgin Galactic. Sir Richard Branson's company recently signed an agreement to establish a second launch facility in Kiruna, Sweden. It's already booking customers who will spend big bucks flying from Spaceport Sweden instead of Spaceport America. When a page-one article in a Bahrain newspaper claimed that Virgin Galactic was about to establish a third spaceport in that Arab nation, the company scrambled to quash the story. In doing so, however, Virgin Galactic confirmed that it was pondering yet another location, in Scotland. Rick Homans, head of the New Mexico Space Authority, says we shouldn't be concerned about this flurry of potential competitors. "The interest in spaceports around the world shows that there is worldwide interest in this new space industry, specifically commercial space tourism," he insists. "This is good news for New Mexico and a confirmation of what we are doing here." But a closer look at the numbers may be less reassuring. Assuming New Mexico captures 75 percent of the US suborbital flight business—and using the most "robust" estimate for that fledgling industry—the NMSU study projects a whopping $122.3 million in total economic activity by year five, creating 615 jobs. What if competition cuts the spaceport's market share to a still-generous 25 percent, and the space industry proves more "constrained"? Suddenly the numbers look much less inspiring: $5.5 million in total economic activity, generating just 28 jobs. |
Even as southern New Mexico counties contemplate boosting their gross-receipts taxes, a new study by the libertarian-leaning Rio Grande Foundation, based in Albuquerque, raises questions about the tax itself. No other state levies such a broad tax at such high rates while also taxing personal income, according to the study. It argues that gross receipts taxes are a boon to special interests, but "killers for economic growth." New Mexico's tax began at a "relatively benign" three percent, study authors Dr. Harry Messenheimer and Paul Gessing point out. "Now, it is a jobs-killing, lobbyist-employing monstrosity. . . . New Mexico's gross receipts tax clearly violates the economic principle that tax rates should be low and applied broadly."
But John L. Hummer, co-chairman of People for Aerospace, argues that the boost for the spaceport is just pennies out of most people's pockets. "The estimated monthly tax to me and other citizens is $2.50," Hummer notes. "I am more than willing to adjust my personal expenses to pay this monthly amount for the potential future benefits."
Hummer also points to the roster of People for Aerospace backers who agree that the tax represents a worthwhile investment: five major real estate development companies, two major hospitals, five major banks, contractors and the Chamber of Commerce. He says, "All of the supporters, and many more who are signing up every day, share a common vision of improving our community's economic conditions and ensuring that our children and future generations of our children have more opportunities in the future right here in our community."
Critics, however, wonder whether Hummer's interest as co-chair of People for Aerospace doesn't have more to do with opportunity for his own company—Steinborn Inc. Realtors. Besides being CEO of the realty firm, Hummer serves as the managing director of Rocket Racing League (RRL) Land Development LLC. And Steinborn is the listing and property management agency for the Rocket Racing League Aerospace Business Park, on 171.35 acres at the West Mesa Industrial Park. The city of Las Cruces sold the land, adjacent to the future spaceport tenant's planned 50,000-square-foot "global headquarters," for $2.33 million—$13,597 an acre—in October. The RRL got a good deal: Recently, according to Hummer, the city raised the price of land across the highway in the West Mesa Industrial Park from $25,000 to $35,000 per acre. So when the RRL business park starts leasing land, the cost basis will start at $35,000 an acre.
But Hummer points out that his own involvement with People for Aerospace started when he was still CEO at MountainView Regional Medical Center, before he became a partner with David Steinborn. The RRL approached Steinborn, Hummer says, not the other way around. "Aerospace companies affiliated with Spaceport America will be looking to relocate at many locations throughout our county, not just on the West Mesa," he says. "Neither my company nor I owns any of the land. My brokers will show the land to anyone who calls and has an interest in leasing land.
"Also, People for Aerospace has made a point not to solicit or accept any money from any aerospace company that plans to conduct business at Spaceport America," Hummer adds.
When the conflict-of-interest question was first raised, Hummer says, he challenged that critic to focus instead on the issues of the spaceport. "We could easily turn the tables and ask, 'What will opponents personally gain by not having a spaceport? Do they have a tax referendum coming up that they favor over ours? Are they part of any wilderness organizations who are opposing this? We choose not to do this but rather remain focused on the issues and continue our goal of educating the public of the benefits of Spaceport America for our community."
Critics, such as Dona Ana County Commissioner Oscar Vasquez Butler, say there are plenty of questions as well about the spaceport and the tax itself. In a recent Sun-News op-ed piece, Butler ticked off a dozen such questions, then challenged boosters' talk of a "halo effect" from the spaceport that will make the whole area an aerospace hub (see box). "The 'halo effect' may drive our need for the spaceport, however 'the devil is in the details,'" Butler wrote. "Quite frankly, 'If you don't have the facts, then don't vote for the tax.'"
At least for UP Aerospace, the spaceport's first launch tenant, the facts aren't as sunny as the company might have hoped—or as it continues to portray them on its Web site. It's not just the crash, but also a series of missed dates: UP Aerospace's initial launch from Spaceport America was originally scheduled for March 2006, then postponed to July, then to late September.
Dates with Destiny Key milestones promised in the development of Spaceport America and its anchor tenants: Dec. 2005: Virgin Galactic said to have signed 20-year lease—still pending, non-binding memorandum of agreement signed March 2007 March 2006: UP Aerospace inaugural launch—postponed July 2006: UP Aerospace inaugural launch—postponed again July 2006: Semi-finalists for RRL teams to be announced—no announcement August 2006: First 10 RRL teams to be announced—only one team, up to three by Oct. 2006 Sept. 2006: UP Aerospace inaugural launch—rocket crashed Oct. 2006: FAA spaceport license—still pending, promised for early 2008 (originally late 2007) Oct. 2006: Rocket Racing League (RRL) Mark-1 X-Racer to debut at the X Prize Cup Expo—postponed End of 2006: UP Aerospace to have completed four launches—one launch, which crashed End of 2006: Spaceport environmental impact statement—still pending, promised mid-2007 End of 2006: UP Aerospace to resume launches—postponed Jan. 2007: Starchaser to have raised £5 million—plans changed Feb. 2007: RRL racing to begin—postponed Feb. 2007: Ground broken on Starchaser's Rocket City April 2007: Dona Ana County votes on spaceport tax—Sierra, Otero votes not yet scheduled By Jan. 1, 2008: Groundbreaking on Spaceport America 2008: RRL to race at seven venues—currently at two 2008: Completion of phase two of Starchaser's Rocket City Late 2008: First Virgin Galactic flights at Mojave, Calif.—postponed to early 2009 |
Looking at the Web site of the Connecticut-based company (www.upaerospace.com), you'd never know that belated inaugural launch ended in disaster and a lengthy, embarrassing search for a crashed rocket. A link on the home page invites visitors to view a video of "the historic inaugural launch from Spaceport America. See multiple camera views, plus footage from inside of the Launch Control Center." What you won't see is a view of the SpaceLoftXL twisting out of control. And the reaction of those inside the Launch Control Center at that horrifically disappointing instant is left to our imaginations. Nor is there video of the days-long search for the wayward spacecraft.
The problem, company president Jerry Larson told SpaceDaily.com, was a "flight anomaly." Relentlessly upbeat, he went on, "We have not seen any major issues. . . . If it continued to fly on the same trajectory for just another three seconds, and thus exiting the densest part of the atmosphere, it would have continued on its way into space."
After being just three seconds away from success, UP Aerospace was forging ahead, with its next two rockets—dubbed SL-2 and SL-3—already built, checked out and ready to fly. "The staff at Spaceport America has been great in helping us to get back on track for our next launch, which is planned to take place before the end of this year [2006]," Larson said. "We're looking forward to getting into a nice launch rhythm at Spaceport America—with up to two space-launches occurring there per month."
That hasn't happened. Nonetheless, the company's Web site still says, "Our launch manifest currently includes four space flights for 2006, 12 space flights for 2007, and up to 30 space flights for 2008 and beyond."
UP Aerospace officials did not respond to Desert Exposure's request to comment for this article or to say when its next launch attempt would be.
When it comes to missed milestones, though, it's hard to top future spaceport tenant the Rocket Racing League (RRL). As detailed in the October 2006 Desert Exposure ("NASCAR in the Sky"), even as the league has zoomed ahead with merchandising everything from videogames to ballcaps, it's fallen far behind previously announced plans to make rocket racing a reality.
The league's Mark-1 X-Racer was promised to debut at the X Prize Cup Expo in Las Cruces in October, but it wasn't ready in time. Instead, attendees had to settle for watching videos on a giant TV and riding a rocket-flight simulator. League racing was supposed to have followed soon after in February, but spokesperson Sandy Davenport said actual racing won't start until this fall at the earliest; the latest RRL newsletter makes no promises at all about when fans might see real rocket racing. The league had also expected to be racing at seven venues by next year and 10 by 2009, but it's been stuck at two—Las Cruces and Reno—since early 2006.
Finding teams willing to pay the estimated $1.2 million upfront costs, not to mention the $500,000 to $1 million annual operational expenses, has proven equally tricky. In early 2006, the Rocket Racing League issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) seeking additional teams, with an initial deadline of March 31. Semi-finalists were to be announced July 4, with the final roster of 10 teams by August 4. None of the public deadlines was met, and the league languished with just one team until Sept. 17, when a second team was announced. A third team was announced at the X Prize event in October; owned by father and son Edward and Marc Cumbow, "Santa Fe Rocket Racing" is the first New Mexico team.
"We are currently in talks with several other prospective teams," according to league CEO Granger Whitelaw. In a message in the RRL newsletter, Whitelaw sounds an upbeat note that should sound familiar to anyone following the spaceport saga: "Excitement from fans and sponsors alike has kept RRL in much demand for appearances throughout the US, and even though we're not quite ready for the first race, we've brought a taste of what is to come to whet the appetites of all who are curious and eagerly anticipating rocket racing."
The Futron study, one of two that spaceport backers rely on to make their case, projects $62.7 million in economic activity and 630 jobs from the Rocket Racing League by 2015, and $78 million and 780 jobs by 2020. That's 10 percent of the total economic benefit from the spaceport in 2020. What are those numbers based on? The estimates came from the RRL itself, plus "discussions with the NASCAR car racing league and independent expert analysis by Futron as to likely growth rates for rocket-powered aircraft racing as a spectator sport."
But the big bucks promised from building the spaceport depend most on space tourism—despite efforts by boosters to underplay this aspect of the project. "The spaceport is designed to accommodate all types of commercial space business, including private satellites and commercial payloads," says a People for Aerospace brochure. Not until the fourth bullet point, almost as an afterthought, does the brochure get around to mentioning, "In addition to commercial payloads, the spaceport can also serve as a hub for the development of the space tourism industry."
In fact, however, 44 percent of the spaceport's economic benefit by 2020, according to the Futron report, derives from space tourism. Analyzing the $406 million in economic activity attributed to "space transportation," the report says, "Space tourism operations are expected to account for approximately 82 percent of this impact in 2020." That's $333 million and 2,271 jobs depending on an industry that to date has sent only four paying customers into space.
Initially, at least, most of New Mexico's hopes for space tourism are riding on billionaire Sir Richard Branson and his Virgin Galactic. Branson's estimated net worth of $7.5 billion has caused some to wonder why he isn't paying to build Spaceport America. The colorful billionaire is, however, investing $250 million to get Virgin Galactic started.
Spaceport-tax backers have also sought to minimize the importance of Branson's operation to the project: "Spaceport America isn't just for one single client," says another brochure. "Like a municipal airport, it will collect user fees from many private companies." Without the user fees from Virgin Galactic, however, it's hard to imagine the $200 million project ever getting off the ground.
And it turns out those fees have not yet been set in stone. When Virgin Galactic's association with the New Mexico spaceport was announced with much hoopla at the Roundhouse in December 2005, news stories and press releases said the company had signed a 20-year lease at $1 million a year for the first five years. But evidently Sir Richard hadn't exactly signed on the bottom line—nor has he, 15 months later.
In late March, in another announcement timed right before the tax vote, the state of New Mexico and Virgin Galactic signed a memorandum of agreement setting out the terms of the 20-year lease that most New Mexicans thought had been signed in December 2005. The 37-page agreement is non-binding, however, and an official lease is still months away.
The Virgin Galactic lease is not the only paperwork that hasn't quite been completed on schedule. The spaceport's environmental impact statement was originally expected to be complete before the end of 2006. In a presentation to Doña Ana County commissioners in January 2007, however, Homans—who also chairs the state's Spaceport Authority—said a draft environmental impact statement would be issued in the second quarter of this year.
The spaceport also needs its FAA license before it can start launching anything bigger than UP Aerospace's rockets—such as Virgin Galactic's spaceships full of tourists. In a January 2006 interview with Desert Exposure, Lonnie Sumpter, director of the New Mexico Office of Space Commercialization, said officials hoped to have the Upham site added to the FAA's list of five licensed spaceports by October 2006. That milestone, too, was missed.
In his presentation to county commissioners, Homans said FAA licensing was expected by the last half of 2007. But that timetable has already slipped again. "The schedule shows that we will have the license by first quarter 2008," Homans now says. That would put licensing after the anticipated groundbreaking for Spaceport America "by Jan. 1, 2008"—unless that date, too, slides.
Finally, the NMSU business plan for the spaceport recommended setting up a $10 million state-funded bond to protect the state and spaceport tenants against liability should anything go wrong. "Damages resulting from space ventures could occur anywhere around the globe or even outside the traditional reaches of earth's jurisdiction and might involve individuals from a variety of nations and states within the US," the report warns. What's the status of this fund? Homans says, "We have not investigated such a fund at this point."
The spaceport's slippery schedule has Dona Ana County commissioners concerned enough that in a meeting in mid-March they amended their earlier decision to put the spaceport tax on the ballot. By a four-to-one vote, they pledged to revoke the tax if three conditions are not met by the end of 2008: FAA licensing, a signed lease with Virgin Galactic and assurance that initial construction won't top $225 million. "We are trying to be responsible," said Commissioner Bill McCamley, who sponsored the resolution. "We are trying to put restrictions on the county and the state."
Though not as important to the bottom line, much of the initial publicity surrounding Virgin Galactic's spaceport plans has turned out to be as insubstantial as that "20-year lease." You've no doubt read that "Star Trek" actor William Shatner will be onboard one of Virgin Galactic's first flights. It's true that Branson offered the captain of TV's Starship Enterprise a free ticket on what's been christened the VSS ("Virgin Space Ship") Enterprise. But Shatner turned him down, saying, "Who the heck wants to go out into space?"
Still, stories persist linking Shatner to Virgin Galactic, to the point where he's asked the company to "cease and desist" saying he'll be a passenger. In an interview with British media, Shatner added bluntly, "I'm interested in man's march into the unknown, but to vomit in space is not my idea of a good time. Neither is a fiery crash with the vomit hovering over me."
Another spacefaring celebrity who's supposed to be a passenger, Aliens star Sigourney Weaver, likewise flatly denies that we'll be seeing her at Spaceport America. Calling the fare "staggering," the actress said, "I've already been to space so many times in my imagination" that she's afraid the real thing wouldn't measure up.
Back here in New Mexico, it turns out, the real thing isn't going to measure up to Phillippe Starck's original, much-publicized design for the company's headquarters. Designed to resemble the iris of a giant eye—specifically Branson's—the structure was said to be 85 percent underground, to save cooling costs while looking, well, cool. But Flight International reports that geologic studies have found the bedrock under the Upham site unsuitable for that plan. The as-yet-unrevealed new design will still be environmentally friendly, according to Virgin Galactic officials, with a rainwater-collecting dome and solar panels. (That may be in response to Friends of the Earth, which recently called Branson "deeply confused about climate change.")
The company did unveil a full-scale mockup of the SpaceShipTwo cabin that will carry six tourists 62 miles into the lower reaches of space. Dick Powell of design company Seymourpowell told Business Week that Virgin Galactic initially "didn't have the budget for us to do it," but that he convinced the company to spring for a full-blown model instead of settling for a 3D computer simulation "that wasn't very convincing and looked a bit crap." After its February debut at the Science Museum in London, the cabin mockup will tour museums around the world to help sell tickets.
And tickets are selling. Virgin Galactic President Will Whitehorn says the company recently passed the 200 mark in passengers who've made a financial commitment, with a total of $20 million in deposits. After the initial 100 fully paid-up "Founders," future space tourists are required only to plunk down a $20,000 deposit—unless you want to be among the "Pioneers" flying in the first year, who must commit $100,000 to $175,000 to jump ahead in line. (Any money paid is fully refundable up to a passenger's "flight confirmation date," about 100 days before liftoff.) In addition, Whitehorn says more than 82,000 people have registered their interest—without paying a deposit—via its Web site. All those numbers are roughly double what Virgin reported a little over a year ago, when its New Mexico deal was announced.
Branson himself has already reserved a seat on the inaugural launch, along with his two children, his 91-year-old father and 88-year-old mother. Other early passengers will include Starck, Superman Returns director Bryan Singer and a honeymooning pair of space boosters—he heads the National Space Society. Rumors have a member of the British royal family onboard as well as wheelchair-bound physicist Stephen Hawking.
The date for launching those first space tourists—from Mojave, Calif., pending completion of Spaceport America—has slipped a bit from late 2008 to a more likely 2009. At the TED Conference in March, Branson said SpaceShipTwo, the spacecraft being designed by X Prize winner Burt Rutan, "will be ready in 12 months. Then we'll do 12 months of extensive testing. So in 24 months, people will be able to take a run into space." Initially, the company expects one flight a week, increasing to one and potentially two a day.
The week after Thanksgiving, Branson gathered a group of the Founders at his Caribbean retreat on Necker Island to hobnob with him and Rutan. According to a Time magazine correspondent who tagged along, after awhile Branson started talking about a topic decidedly not on the agenda when he and Gov. Richardson unveiled Virgin Galactic's spaceport participation—sex in space. "A vision of weightless gymnastics at zero G and intricate human docking maneuvers dances briefly in everyone's head," the Time reporter writes, until "Sir Richard, displaying a wolfish grin," warned the assembly, "Of course, if you want to get naked, someone might find out."
But the company isn't counting on millionaires just dropping by its Web site, surfing for suborbital sex. It's also enlisted 47 members of the Virtuoso network of high-end travel agents to sell seats on its spaceships. The agents underwent a two-day crash course in space travel at Cape Canaveral, where they were told that space tourists would get to wear "the coolest, sexiest pressure suits you've ever seen in your life." According to a Los Angeles Times report, the travel agents were also schooled on the sales pitch: "It's not just four minutes of weightlessness; it's a three-day, perspective-altering experience that almost no one else has had."
Agents won't get the standard 10-14 percent commission for booking spaceflights, just three percent. Still, three percent of $200,000 is $6,000. No word on how that may change in the future if, as promised, the fare eventually drops to $50,000.
Not everyone is climbing on board. The Times quotes space historian Roger Launius, curator at the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum: "It's obviously going to require people who have a fair amount of disposable income. They're not like Aunt Mable and Uncle Ed who go to the beach for a week. These people exist, but it's not a large community and never has been."
Another spaceport tenant, British-based Starchaser Industries, hopes to give Branson a run for his money in the space-tourism race. Starchaser actually began work in February on its "Rocket City" complex—located on I-10 west of Las Cruces, not in remote Upham. The 10-year, $100 million privately financed project will include "a space-themed resort complex featuring astronaut training facilities."
The first phase of Starchaser Rocket City is a bit more modest, however. A small crew from Las Cruces-based D'Rubi Construction, owned by Elisa Contreras, began remodeling an existing building to house corporate offices and a retail area. Later this year will come a domed, 3,600-square-foot exhibition area. Next, according to Starchaser CEO Steven Bennett, former director of space technology at the University of Salford in England, will be a 10,000-square-foot rocket assembly plant. Phase two, scheduled for completion in 2008, will include the construction of an 80-room hotel and conference center, a restaurant and a gasoline station. The site spans a mile of frontage along I-10, 17 miles west of the Las Cruces airport.
As Rocket City rises, Bennett says, the company's New Mexico employment will increase to seven or eight by the end of this year. "We have a 10-year plan that will create several hundred jobs from service positions to rocket scientists," he adds.
Unlike other future spaceport users, Starchaser has a track record of successful launches. (Rutan's SpaceShipOne did fly successfully, but Virgin Galactic has never put a vehicle into space nor has its SpaceShipTwo yet been tested.) Starchaser has made 14 successful launches, all from the UK, including Nova in 2001, the largest rocket ever to have been flown from the UK mainland. After touring before 150,000 British schoolchildren, the Nova rocket will next be on view in Las Cruces and at this month's National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs.
Besides launching commercial payloads, Starchaser plans to challenge Virgin Galactic. "We sold our first two seats in the year 2000 for $250,000 apiece. We are looking to get our prices down to less than $100,000 per seat," Bennett says. "We currently have over 200 people registered as potential customers. We can underprice Virgin because we build, service and launch our own rockets." He says Starchaser is looking at 2010 for its first launch, "though we may launch an unmanned rocket earlier."
Can the company really compete with Branson's billions? An initial goal of raising about $10 million through stock sales by 2007 has been changed, thanks to a cash injection of almost $2 million from a private investor in May 2005. "This has provided us with a bit of latitude to consider our options," says Bennett. "Our current plan is to secure another £3 million [about $6 million] from several high net-worth individuals. In 2010 we'll do the Initial Public Offering (IPO), thereby doubling the value of our investors' stake in the company. Post-IPO we will be open to smaller investors for a minimum of £1,000 [about $2,000] per investor. To date we have over 600 people who have registered their interest as small investors."
So, while Starchaser hasn't met its original goal of almost $10 million in capital, at least it has raised nearly $2 million with plans for more. To put that in perspective, however, $2 million—the working capital of one of the spaceport's five prime tenants (if you count the X Prize Cup)—is roughly what's required to open two McDonald's franchises.
Should the missed milestones and other uncertainties give Dona Ana County voters pause as they weigh raising their own taxes to fund the spaceport? Homans says such problems come with the territory: "We are getting in on the ground floor of a brand-new industry—full of innovation, experimentation, success and sometimes failure," he says. "One has to look at the big picture, the number of companies getting involved, the involvement by NASA, and the growing participation in events such as the X Prize Cup. It is important that we encourage these companies and help them work through the kind of unexpected events that happen when you are doing something that has never been done before."
Hummer argues that the spaceport is a much better bet than that made by cities raising taxes to build sports stadiums. "Based on Cincinnati and other sports towns who have done similar things," he says, "I think it is fair to state that our $49 million sunset tax for a spaceport is a much wiser use of funds than for a sports stadium. Better yet, 25 percent of this tax will be coming back to our public schools."
If you're an investor—as taxpayers are in effect being asked to become—a history of broken deadlines and slippery statistics must be troubling, however. So might be the caveats that litter the NMSU business plan for the spaceport: "It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spaceport and talk about the level of economic activity it may generate." And on another page: "It is difficult to estimate the impact from a spaceport because no spaceport of this type has ever been developed. No economic model has been developed to incorporate the impact of a spaceport or commercialization of space industry because neither exists." Not exactly the sort of sunny confidence private investors would look for or that spaceport boosters radiate despite constant setbacks. Would you invest your own money in a business fraught with such huge unknowns, with a track record to date devoid of measurable success?
New Mexico taxpayers already have, and Dona Ana County taxpayers are being asked to chip in more. We can only hope that Spaceport America's bold promises don't turn out to be pie in the sky.
David A. Fryxell is editor of Desert Exposure.